Tuesday, April 29, 2008

The Ad

I saw a reprint of a personal ad that ran in craigslist and a reply it drew. Flashback time.

Pete and I were nursing some drinks at an event put on in a banquet hall by a singles club. Pete turned his head so not to be lip-read. “Bogie at two o’clock high,” he whispered.

I subtlety shift my gaze to the coordinates and locked eyes with a woman across the room. She smiled. I smiled. I noted her attire. To borrow a line from “In the Heat of the Night,” she was real proud of what Mother Nature done for her.

I was weighing my options when she took the initiative. Where do they learn to walk like that?

“Hello. My name is Della Crown.”

“Mario Liverizani. Pleased to meet you.” One can never be too cautious in these situations.

“I thought you had that continental look.”

“Hard to disguise.”

“You’re driving that Corvette convertible in the lot.”

“No, mine’s the brown Pinto with the one yellow door.”

“It’s a new one.”

“Nope. Has at least eight hundred miles on it.”

“So, Mario, what do you do for a living?”

“Look, Della, why don’t we save some time and I’ll just have my CPA mail you my 1040s for the past three years?”

“Smooth,” said Pete as Della flounced off. “Very smooth.”

So, what were Pete and I doing at a lonely hearts club? And, what does this have to do with the ad?

Pete approached me in the late 80s for some marketing help. His business was leasing the bar or bar/restaurant area from hotels, fraternal halls, etc. and running them as his own business.

It’s good for the hotel because it enhances their business to have the amenity. They’re willing to provide a favorable rate. But, it can be tough to attract outside patronage, which is the gravy.

Pete thought it would be more profitable to attract groups to fill the space than to compete for individuals. But, he wasn’t having much success.

I reviewed his efforts and they weren’t bad. In fact, I didn’t think I could make a dramatic improvement for him, going that route. But, there’s more than one way to peel a feline.

If you can’t attract groups to fill your excess capacity, create captive groups. Okay, but what kinds of groups? Look at the trends and read the tea leaves.

The baby boomers were coming out of first marriages, booming the singles industry. Dating services, personal ads, singles clubs, etc. Time to scout the competition and see if there was a niche to be had.

Pete and I started working our way through all the singles clubs and parties. As gigs go, getting paid by the hour and reimbursed for expenses for doing this is hard to beat.

The chink in the armor of the competition appeared to be a dissatisfaction with the methodology for identifying “the right person.” It was modeled on the high school dance paradigm. In the din of loud music and dubious lighting effects, it was difficult to learn much about anyone. The matching process was rooted in the more aggressive males initiating contact based upon visual criteria.

So, we concluded that an effective differentiation would be to facilitate communication, content and knowledge. We did this as a joint venture.

The club events were held every other Friday. Maintaining an informal ambiance, we booked speakers on diverse subjects: travel, career changes, participation sports, the arts, etc. After a presentation, the speaker would moderate a discussion. This would reveal common interests among the group.

Afterwards, there would be a cocktail party. It was easier to circulate and conduct conversations than a dance. We augmented the process with ice breaking exercises.

It didn’t bomb, but it didn’t grow enough to generate a sufficient return. This was a business for us and I had bigger fish to fry.

Why it didn’t work is still a mystery to me. I did some follow up, but you’re not going to get many straight answers in a case like this. As near as I could tell, it just wasn’t as much fun as the old mating dance.

Ah, yes. The ad:

What am I doing wrong?Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy.I'm not from New York. I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think I'm overreaching at all.Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around 200 - 250. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won't get me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?Here are my questions specifically:- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)?- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows - lawyer, investment banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLYPlease hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.The response: I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament.Firstly, I'm not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said here's how I see it.Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity...in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain, you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 stick a fork in you!So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and hold...hence the rub...marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy you" (which is what you're asking) so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage.Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful"as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if not only for a tryout.By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way.Classic "pump and dump." I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, let me know.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Evolution of the bandanna

Deanna, my second-in-command (on the organization chart, but in reality…), was sitting across from me with her weekly list of dragons she wanted me to slay. I heard a commotion in the hallway, which is not unusual.

Someone was running down the hall yelling, “My jump stick. I’ve lost my jump stick! Has anyone seen my jump stick?” A breathless young woman burst into my office. “Have you seen my jump stick?” Our expressions must’ve spoke for themselves because she dashed away to resume her quest.

I raised an eyebrow at Deanna. “One of ours.” We’ve worked together long enough to know I was inquiring if this woman was staff or client. In mental health, the line can blur. “She’s an intern.” Everyone under 30 looks the same to me.

About a half hour later, Colleen (the intern) stuck he head in my office and flicked a talisman strung around her neck. “I found it!” I looked at her blankly. “My jump stick. It’s my whole life.” Obviously, this didn’t help me any, so she came in to explain.

Before I get to that, I’ll lay out a time line. Very early in life, I was imprinted with cartoon or comic images of tramps and runaways carrying all their worldly possessions in a bandanna at the end of a stick. It always bothered me a little that I never actually saw a real person do that.

Going off to college, I had everything I owned crammed into a laundry bag that sat between my knees on the train. Quite a contrast to my own children. I had to tow a rented trailer with my stuffed SUV to check them into their dorms.

Somewhere during my college years or shortly thereafter, the politically correct hobo emerged. That is, young people living out of backpacks and off generous hosts. This morphed into adolescents hefting on a full pack just to go to the mall. You never know when an expedition might break out.

When I packed off to college, I thought that I did indeed carry my whole life in my laundry bag. But, I was a piker by Colleen’s standards, as she would show me.

The home for her jump stick was on a lanyard around her neck. Unless she bathed or plugged it into a computer, it was pressed to her chest.

Colleen plugged it into my computer to demonstrate. It had all her personal records, calendar, every assignment she had done in college, phone/email directory, passwords, account numbers, maps, references, correspondence, budget – everything. Or, everything that is Colleen. She told me she wouldn’t know how to leave her apartment and survive without it. That’s her in there.

The jump stick is a long way from the bandanna on a stick.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Crash

In speed driving courses, you are taught to look down the road for what might cause a crash, not right in front of you. A good life guideline, as well.

So, while we were focused on skyrocketing energy costs, maxed out loans and purchasing power, and an economic downturn, few seemed to note Kathleen Casey-Kirschling standing at the curve down the pike. Ms. Kirschling was the first baby boomer to file for Social Security.

FDR set up Social Security along the principles of a pyramid scheme, illegal in 50 states. New entries would fund existing members of the pyramid. When it was set up, 44 people were funding a retiree. Now, it’s down to three. The framers of the system failed to adequately account for the population trend fluctuation, longer life span and decline in average real income.

In terms of real life, what this means is the positive cash flow will soon end, as boomers take retirement, or even early retirement. That will bankrupt the system in short order unless the government finds other viable cash sources. A government that had to borrow money from China just to do the recent meager economic stimulus.

Many were relying on their future checks to live in their retirement. Did they think that would cover the rising cost of fuel to run their cars and heat their houses? To deliver their food and other necessities for decades to come? Costs are rising; benefit payments are fixed. Did they consider that those paltry checks might be slashed or eliminated when the chickens came home to roost? Or, did they put all their chips on the government knowing best? The people who don’t rely on Social Security for their own retirement benefits.

Speaking of realities, have you considered how the government will process a load of work that will almost double when the 70 million retire and want their benefits? They’ve seen it coming. Of course, they see April 15th coming every year. Have you ever tried to call the IRS helpline?

And, let’s not forget Medicare, Social Security’s evil twin. That has problems now. What do you think it will be like under the weight of retiring baby boomers?

The economic stimulus of “spend” is a buy now, starve later plan. Don’t rely on the government to plan for you. Earn now, save now, and invest wisely now. You’re deciding your future.